COP29: Offshore wind will be a pillar of the future energy system

Investing in research and environmentally friendly solutions is essential to ensure sustainable development and maximise value creation. Strengthened cooperation in the North Sea and regular announcements of new development areas will offer predictability and growth opportunities for the industry.

SINTEF is participating at COP as an independent observer, committed to advancing sustainable climate and energy solutions. To support this goal, we are providing advice to climate negotiators on 15 key areas with the potential to significantly reduce emissions.

• SINTEF’s  advice for COP29: Technology for a Faster Global Climate Transition

Recommendations for offshore wind

• Continue and strengthen the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC) on the development of offshore wind and offshore energy grids.
• Provide predictability to the industry with annual announcements of areas to be developed for offshore wind.
• Require that offshore wind developers who have received licences and government subsidies must invest in research and development, in order to ensure the greatest possible learning outcomes and value creation.
• Require that relevant measurement data is collected and made available for further R&D under certain conditions.
• Develop both the onshore and offshore power grid and power system to ensure effective integration of offshore wind and other renewable energy sources, hydrogen and hydropower in a way that respects nature and facilitates coexistence with other users of the area.

Problem

Currently, offshore wind constitutes only a small proportion of the total global wind power capacity, but its potential is many times greater than the world’s electricity consumption. Offshore wind can be developed at a large scale near large load centres without the same types of conflicts and impact on the environment that can be associated with land-based wind power.

Increased costs and pressure on profitability are a challenge for offshore wind investments. Until a few years ago, the cost of offshore wind was greatly reduced, but has since increased in the same way as other energy technologies as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and an upheaval of the global economy, which has involved increased prices for raw materials, capital and labour. Multiple large players in the field have taken significant losses, but the trend is about to reverse, and several successful auctions for offshore wind have already been carried out.

Floating offshore wind is at an early stage of development, with higher associated costs than bottom-fixed offshore wind, but has great potential and can eventually become competitive without subsidies. Further technology development is absolutely essential in order to be able to utilise the large wind resources in sea areas with deep water. 80% of the global offshore wind potential is in areas with water depths that require floating offshore wind technology.

Realising offshore wind will require a significant restructuring of the power system both on land and at sea, to ensure the efficient integration of offshore wind energy, as well as hydrogen, hydropower and other renewable energy sources. Technologies and solutions must be developed to ensure that offshore wind farms can be established and operated without negatively impacting nature and allowing for coexistence with other users.

Solution

Land-based wind power has developed into a major industry that installs 50 to 100 GW of new capacity each year. A similar pace is entirely possible for offshore wind, but requires the development of industry, supply chains, infrastructure and expertise. Environmental design is a prerequisite for sustainability and will become an important competitive parameter in the future, and help ensure that development and operation of offshore windes do not negatively impact nature or people.

In Europe, North Sea countries aim to increase the installed offshore wind capacity from 30 GW at the end of 2022 to 300 GW by 2050. This will produce large amounts of emission-free energy, which is absolutely necessary for our ability to reach our climate targets. 300 GW of offshore wind will result in over 1000 TWh of electricity annually, corresponding to an annual reduction in CO₂ emissions of 1000 megatons if replacing coal power, and 500 megatons if replacing gas power. The total investments needed to develop 300 GW of offshore wind will be in the order of €1,000 billion.

Predictability is a prerequisite for developing industry and supply chains. Industry depends on seeing that there is a long-term market in order to be able to invest in new production facilities. Announcing areas for development and the choice of auction form are of decisive importance. Auctions that mainly prioritise price per kWh put a pressure on cost, but do not necessarily form a basis for increasing industrial production capacity or ensuring the most sustainable development possible. When granting licenses and government subsidies, there should be a requirement that offshore wind developers must invest in R&D and collect relevant measurement data to be made available to R&D actors under given conditions. This will ensure the greatest possible learning outcomes and value creation from offshore wind development.

A comprehensive and reinforced investment in research, innovation and education is a prerequisite for succeeding with our offshore wind ambitions. Knowledge, new technologies, effective solutions, and a work force with the right skills are central success criteria. Leading European research institutions, in collaboration with large industrial companies, have pointed to two research areas that are particularly important: floating offshore wind and large-scale integration of offshore wind in the power system. The vision is that offshore wind will be a pillar of the future energy system, developed with respect for nature and society, providing clean and affordable energy for all.

Main COP29 recommendation: International research communities and industrial partners are developing technologies to reduce emissions and advance the energy transition, and we strongly recommend establishing a global North-South R&D program with open, competitive calls to ensure a fair, accelerated path to a sustainable economy.